At the end of fiscal year 2023, which ended Sept. 30, the county’s hospitality industry had reached 98.9% of pre-pandemic levels. Visitor spending in the county topped $1.6 billion — up 14.4% over the previous year.

The agency that leads the promotion of Montgomery County as a destination is the Valley Forge Tourism and Convention Board. A private, nonprofit membership-based sales and marketing organization, the board actively promotes the Valley Forge Area and Montgomery County and its member hotels, restaurants, attractions and services.

It works to fill the county’s more than 9,400 hotel rooms by attracting meetings, sports, tourism and leisure businesses.

Mike Bowman is the president and CEO of the Valley Forge Tourism and Convention Board. He recently sat down with MediaNews Group to talk about the recovery and how the industry, visitors and his agency have changed in this post-COVID era.

How Bad Did Things Get During the Pandemic?

When COVID-19 struck early in 2020, there was an immediate impact on the hospitality industry. Restaurants shut down, attractions closed, hotel occupancy plummeted, and weddings and meetings were canceled.

“We were coming off a great 2019. We were having a great first quarter (of 2020). We went from 60% occupancy to 2% overnight. We hit bottom quick,” Bowman said.

From there it was a gradual recovery as some of the restrictions began to ease.

“We got into 2022 and got a surge that carried us forward. Then we started seeing families getting together again, and the weekends started to click. I’m very encouraged,” he added.

The Recovery

“I would say the business is back and it was a very, very good year for Montgomery County. But the business is different,” Bowman said. “For example, our mid-week corporate business is still rebounding. We’re not where we were in 2019, because of work from home for many companies.”

Over the last four or five months, he said, there has been an uptick in the corporate business on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

“I think Thursday has become Friday for people. Monday is ‘let’s get ready for the week,’” he said, adding there is also an uptick at Philadelphia International Airport on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

Bowman added that leadership of the county’s hotels is also seeing that mid-week increase.

Bowman said it’s taking a while for that segment to rebound fully because work from home is still part of the business climate.

One area that came roaring back in fiscal year 2023 was the youth sports segment — setting a record this summer.

The county hosted 35 sporting events with record-high attendance, generating more than 85,000 total room nights, resulting in $23 million in economic impact, up 19% over last year, the tourism board said.

The U.S. Youth Soccer Eastern President’s Cup, held June 16-20, was the single largest sporting event to ever come to Montgomery County, according to the agency’s annual report. The tournament generated 5,000 room nights and $5 million in economic impact.

In 2024, the county will play host to the YMCA Gymnastics Nationals — an event Bowman said should be an event larger than the soccer tournament.

Sports contributes more than 70% of the Valley Forge Tourism and Convention Board’s total group business. Six years ago, Bowman said, youth sports-related bookings were 28% of the agency’s group business.

Also performing well is weekend leisure.

“The weekend business has been incredible. We had a really strong summer, softened up in August, then bam, we had a good September and October,” Bowman said. “The wedding industry, reunions and family gatherings are really strong.”

Occupancy at the county’s 83 hotels, Bowman said, is still down a point or two from 2019 levels, but rates were up, with a daily rate of $133. He said the hotels’ margins were down during fiscal year 2023 because of the cost of goods.

The properties are producing more than $200 million in hotel room revenue, a 9% increase over 2022, according to the VFTCB’s annual report. In June, hotel revenue was the highest ever, reaching $29.3 million and an average daily rate of $147.

Bowman said there was a time, maybe seven or eight years ago when it was harder to sell weekends than weekdays.

“The weekend business all year from 2022 into 2023 has been unbelievable for most of the hotels,” he said. “When you look at our indicators for the region we’re outperforming — with momentum — most of the suburban counties.”

What Has Changed?

When it comes to visitors, Bowman said there has been a shift in their behavior. He said there has been an increase in businesses located on “main streets” in the county, as more visitors look for that experience.

“They (visitors) want to sit on a bench and have an ice cream cone. … We’re seeing a large uptick on Thursdays on social media and the website — especially from women looking for things to do for families for the weekend. They are going out,” he said, adding visitors are also looking for value.

For the venues — the hotels, restaurants and attractions — Bowman said things got “pretty rough” for them during the pandemic, but they are doing better now than even six to 12 months ago. He said adding technology has helped — things like visitors settling checks at the table, or checking into a hotel via their phones.

“There has also been a lot of learning on how do we find and retain our people. A lot of hotels are investing in helping with tuition reimbursement and other things to keep people — because turnover costs a lot of money,” Bowman added.

The Valley Forge Tourism and Convention Board has shifted to meet the new “norm” for the hospitality industry.

Since the pandemic, the agency’s staff has gone from 31 to 22. The youth sports team added two positions, as did marketing, according to Bowman, who said the agency shifted focus to “quality from quantity, to bring in the right, smart people.”

He added that the Valley Forge Tourism and Convention Board has refreshed its marketing, with its social media strategy and digital marketing efforts making emotional connections and focusing on things to do.

“Our TV campaigns are pretty funny, we’ve added humor to them,” Bowman said. “They have a great message — we’re using a lot of fun and humor in what we do, saying ‘hey, come on out.’ And people are responding.”

What About the Future?

“I’m very optimistic for Montgomery County — I feel really good,” Bowman said, adding that he expects the hospitality industry will still be a different business.

Bowman expects that in fiscal year 2024, the economic impact of the hospitality will surpass 2019’s $1.7 billion.

“I am excited about the business,” Bowman said.

The company announced the closings in bankruptcy filings in December.

The 53 stores are on top of 255 store closings Rite Aid previously announced. One in the Lehigh Valley — at 104 E. Third Street in south Bethlehem — had already been announced to close in early January.

Rite Aid, which was based in East Pennsboro Township near Camp Hill for decades and is now based in Philadelphia, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in October to begin restructuring to significantly reduce its debt.

The 11 store closings in Pennsylvania from the company’s announcements in December are located at:

• 105 Old York Road in Fairview Township, York County (New Cumberland)
• 621 Clay Ave., Jeanette
• 104 E. Third St., Bethlehem
• 14 Fifth St., Williamsport
• 201 N. Washington Ave., Scranton
• 2100 Washington Pike, Carnegie
• 64 N. Mercer Ave., Sharpsville
• 230 Hays Ave., Pittsburgh
• 642 Eaton Road, Warrington
• 1628-36 Chestnut St., Philadelphia
• 39 West Side Mall, Edwardsville

Rite Aid previously announced that these Pennsylvania stores will also close:

• 2121 W. Lehigh Ave., Suite 5, Philadelphia
• 535 Lincoln Ave., Pittsburgh
• 700 Stevenson Blvd., New Kensington
• 351 Brighton Ave., Rochester
• 5235 Library Road, Bethel Park
• 5990 University Boulevard, Suite 30, Moon Township
• 2501 Saw Mill Run, Pittsburgh
• 5410 Keeport Drive, Pittsburgh
• 6090 Route 30, Greensburg
• 4830 William Penn Highway, Export
• 1730 Wilmington Road, New Castle
• 2178 W. Union Blvd., Bethlehem
• 1628 S. 4th St., Allentown
• 2401 E. Venango St., Philadelphia
• 6327-43 Torresdale Ave., Philadelphia
• 200 W. Ridge Ave., Suite 112, Conshohocken
• 301 Eisenhower Drive, Hanover
• 7036 Wertzville Road, Silver Spring Township (Closed on Sept. 26)
• 429 S. Hanover St., Carlisle (closed on Nov. 27)
• 1927 Atherton St., College Township, Centre County
• 306 Town Center, Route 202, New Britain, Bucks County
• 927 Paoli Pike, West Chester
• 821 E. Bishop St., Bellefonte
• 6200 Saltsburg Road, Pittsburgh
• 2545 Aramingo Ave., Philadelphia

A&G Real Estate Partners, which is working with Rite Aid to sell some of the pharmaceutical retailer’s leases and properties, has also announced it is selling 22 leases and fee-owned stores in Pennsylvania. Six of the stores are part of the list of store closings.

The other 16 are listed below.

Leases:

• 2722 West 9th St., Chester
• 5990 University Blvd., Coraopolis
• 1709 Liberty Ave., Erie
• 353 E. 6th St., Erie
• 301 Eisenhower Drive, Hanover
• 1130 Cumberland St., Lebanon
• 350 Main St., Pennsburg
• 5612 N. 5th St., Philadelphia
• 6101 N. Broad St., Philadelphia
• 208 E. Central Ave., Titusville

Fee-owned properties

• 136 N. 63rd St., Philadelphia
• 3000-02 Reed St., Philadelphia
• 7941 Oxford Ave., Philadelphia
• 10 S. Center St., Pottsville
• SR 940 and Main St., White Haven

©2023 Advance Local Media LLC. Visit pennlive.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

“It’s going to be hard for consumers to navigate,” says shopping expert Trae Bodge. “The return policies are all over the place.” The biggest change, she adds, is that more retailers are charging fees for returned merchandise.

About 40% of online and brick-and-mortar retailers are charging fees for returns this year compared with 31% last year, according to David Morin, vice president of customer strategy at Narvar, which handles shipping, tracking and returns information post-purchase for online retailers. Those return shipping or restocking fees are generally $3.99 to $9.99, he says.

The good news is there are ways to minimize return fees and in some cases avoid them altogether. Here’s what experts recommend.

REVIEW RETURN POLICIES IN ADVANCE

Because retailer return policies vary so much and many have recently changed, Morin recommends checking the return policy before you make any purchases, even if it’s at a store where you’ve bought from before. “Many retailers are offering an extended return window during the holiday gift season, but always look at the fine print,” he says.

In many cases, says Samantha Gordon, deals editor for Consumer Reports, return windows are shorter than in previous years. “A lot of retailers extended their return policies because of the pandemic, and we’re seeing those accommodations go away,” she says.

For shoppers, the return experience is a critical part of whether they enjoy their interaction with the retailer and become repeat customers, says Spencer Kieboom, co-founder and CEO of Pollen Returns, which partners with retailers to help them manage returns. For that reason, he says, “I always check the return policy.”

JOIN THE LOYALTY PROGRAM

One of the easiest ways to avoid fees is to join a retailer or brand’s loyalty program, which often comes with perks like free returns.

The only downside? Doing so means being on the receiving end of promotional emails about sales and discounts. If you want to limit the amount of marketing going into your primary email account, Bodge suggests setting up a separate email for shopping-related messages.

For Bodge, the pros of joining loyalty programs outweigh the cons. “You can earn points to get free things, you get access to exclusive sales and free merchandise. It’s a good practice,” she says.

DO THE LEGWORK YOURSELF

Shoppers can also often avoid return fees by taking the item to the store themselves. “Most retailers are happy to have consumers visit their store,” Morin says, so they generally make in-store returns free. Drop-off locations have become more prevalent, he says, for example with Whole Foods and Kohl’s accepting Amazon returns for free.

Always keep the receipts, tags and original packaging until you know whether you’ll be making a return.

RESEARCH ITEMS MORE BEFORE PURCHASING

Taking the time to select the correct item in the first place can negate the need for returns altogether, Bodge says. “If you’re not sure about something, go into the store so you’re not taking a chance,” she says.

Gordon agrees: “Before you buy it, make sure you want it. Don’t just buy the thing that’s on sale.” Similarly, if you’re buying a gift, think carefully about the recipient’s sizing and preferences before making your selection.

BUDGET FOR EXTRA FEES

Return fees are likely here to stay, so Bodge recommends preparing yourself, and your budget, for them. “Ultimately, you may have to pay a return shipping fee between $5 and $10 each time,” she says. “We should expect to pay for returns for most retailers eventually.”

Morin agrees. “Free returns for everyone all the time is likely an unsustainable proposition,” he says, especially given the widespread and growing prevalence of online shopping.

Factoring in those fees when making purchases can help reduce surprises later. “If you’re placing an order online, you need to get into a different head space about returning,” and go in knowing that free returns are less likely going forward, Bodge says.

CONSIDER SELLING OR REGIFTING INSTEAD

Andrea Woroch, a money-saving expert, says that if making a return isn’t possible or if you want to avoid the return fee, another option is to regift the item or sell it online. People can sell clothing and accessories on Poshmark, gadgets on eBay and toys or other goods on OfferUp or Facebook Marketplace, she says.

If you’re regifting, just make sure the person actually would enjoy the item. Woroch adds: “Don’t just pass something on to get rid of it.”

This column was provided to The Associated Press by the personal finance website NerdWallet. Kimberly Palmer is a personal finance expert at NerdWallet and the author of “Smart Mom, Rich Mom.” Email: kpalmer@nerdwallet.com. X: @KimberlyPalmer.

Although U.S. airlines this year hadn’t experienced the kinds of mass cancellations and operational breakdowns that plagued the industry in 2022, carriers continued to struggle. Part of that is due to a record number of people flying. According to data from the Transportation Security Administration, 2023 has seen some of the highest-ever single-day numbers of people passing through airport security checkpoints.

NerdWallet reviewed data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics about on-time percentages, cancellation rates, flight diversions, mishandled baggage, tarmac delays and involuntary denied boardings to determine the most reliable — and least reliable — domestic airlines in the U.S. in 2023.

Here’s a look at performance in each category of the data.

On-time percentage

On-time percentage is the headline statistic for airline performance, since whether a flight is late, and by how much, affects every passenger on the flight. The BTS defines a flight as “on time” if it arrives at the destination gate no later than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival time.

Based on BTS data from January to August 2023, only one airline topped an 80% on-time percentage — and just barely. Delta Air Lines had an 80.8% on-time percentage. Alaska slipped in at 79.9% for second place.

The worst performers were Frontier Airlines, with just 62.1% of flights arriving within 15 minutes of the scheduled arrival time, and JetBlue Airlines, with a 65.4% on-time percentage. That means more than 1 of every 3 JetBlue flights and nearly 2 in 5 Frontier flights was delayed by more than 15 minutes during the period reviewed.

Flight cancellations

Delayed flights are bad enough. Canceled flights are a nightmare.

BTS data from January to August 2023 reveals an unexpected winner: Allegiant Airlines canceled 0.84% of its flights during the period. Alaska Airlines was a close second with a 0.86% cancellation rate.

Frontier and JetBlue were again at the bottom of the rankings. Frontier had a 2.87% cancellation rate, with JetBlue at 2.59%. That means Frontier canceled around 1 in 35 scheduled flights, while JetBlue canceled 1 in 39.

BTS cancellation data includes only flights that are canceled within seven days of departure, when they’re most likely to throw travelers’ plans into turmoil. Airlines aren’t penalized in this metric for canceling or rescheduling flights more than a week out — which seems to have become increasingly common.

Mishandled luggage

The more connecting flights an airline has, the more opportunities there are for luggage to get lost as bags move from plane to plane. It may not be surprising, then, that airlines with route systems that don’t rely on funneling everyone through hub airports seem to perform better at luggage handling.

Allegiant takes top marks with 0.16% of checked bags mishandled from January to August 2023, according to BTS data. Put another way, only 1 of every 610 bags checked on Allegiant Airlines was lost, delayed or mishandled. Southwest Airlines placed second (0.48%), while most other airlines came in at between 0.5% and 0.6%.

Two big legacy carriers, American Airlines (0.85%) and United Airlines (0.84%), were nearly tied as the worst-performing airlines for mishandled luggage. From a raw numbers stance, American mishandled the most number of checked bags: 591,365 — an average of more than 2,433 mishandled bags per day.

Flight diversions

Having your flight diverted to an airport other than your intended destination can be as confounding as a cancellation. Across U.S. airlines that report to the U.S. Department of Transportation, 9,722 flights were diverted from January through August 2023 — around 1 in every 359 scheduled flights.

During the period examined in 2023, the airline least likely to divert a flight — both in raw numbers and percentage of flights — was Hawaiian Airlines with 53 diversions and a diversion rate of 0.09%. Frontier was a distant second with a 0.19% diversion rate.

Percentage-wise, JetBlue was the worst performer with a diversion rate of 0.45% — or 1 of every 218 scheduled flights. Meanwhile, Southwest had the most diversions in total, with a whopping 2,293 diverted flights during the period.

Other performance metrics

The last two metrics we looked at were tarmac delays and involuntary denied boardings.

A “tarmac delay” is recorded when a plane has pushed back from the gate but doesn’t take off, or has landed but doesn’t allow passengers to get off the aircraft, for more than three hours for a domestic flight and four hours for an international flight. From January to August 2023, Hawaiian was the only major U.S. airline without a single tarmac delay. United had the most tarmac delays, 73, including one of nearly six hours.

An “involuntary denied boarding” occurs when an airline sells more tickets for a flight than it has seats available, then doesn’t get enough volunteers to take a later flight. When that happens, someone gets bumped from the flight. Allegiant and Hawaiian both didn’t have any involuntary denied boardings from January to June 2023 — the most recently reported data.

At the other end of the scale, Frontier denied boarding to 5,782 passengers, and American did it to 5,033. To put those numbers in context, all other airlines combined denied boarding to a total of 2,929 passengers.

The most reliable airline of 2023

Two airlines were nearly neck-and-neck in this year’s analysis, but Alaska Airlines barely edged out Delta Air Lines as the most reliable.

Alaska was buoyed by a second-place finish in on-time percentage (79.9%) and second-lowest cancellation rate (0.86%). A modest denied boarding rate and a dozen tarmac delays were enough to offset a middling mishandled baggage rate (0.59%) for first place overall.

Delta took top marks in on-time percentage (80.8%) and essentially zero denied boardings. However, its cancellation rate (1.6%) was almost double Alaska’s while its baggage mishandled rate (0.53%) was only modestly better than Alaska’s.

Frontier was the clear worst performer among U.S. airlines, with the worst on-time percentage (62.1%), highest cancellation rate (2.87%) and exceptionally high denied boarding rate, almost eight times that of its nearest competitor.

Meanwhile, JetBlue finished in second-to-last place with a poor showing in virtually all metrics, including the second-worst on-time percentage (65.4%) and second-highest cancellation rate (2.59%). Rounding out the bottom three was Spirit Airlines with the third-worst on-time percentage (65.94%), fourth-worst cancellation rate (2.08%) and fourth-worst mishandled bag rate (0.57%).

The article Which Airline Has Been the Most Reliable in 2023? originally appeared on NerdWallet.

Floods, fires, historic storms — severe weather events are on the rise. If your home was hit by high water or a wildfire, would your important papers be safe?

“Unfortunately, I’ve had clients who’ve been victims of fires, flooding, hurricanes,” says Sev Tamayo, an agent with Goosehead Insurance in Palm Coast, Florida. “Some of them were prepared and some of them weren’t.”

Don’t be unprepared. Here’s what you need to do to protect your important documents.

What you should keep safe

The most important items to keep in a safe place are things that are difficult to replicate, which includes documents that prove identity, legal process or ownership. If you’d have to call a government agency to process a replacement, you probably want to store it somewhere where it can stay damage-free. You should also consider what you’d need to access if a disaster strikes.

Here are some items to consider, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency:

• Birth, adoption, death, marriage and divorce certificates.

• Passports, green cards and Social Security cards.

• Property documents pertaining to your home or rental properties, mortgage or lease, and vehicles.

• Pet ownership paperwork.

• Paper stock and bond certificates.

• Military discharge papers.

• Health records, health insurance information and disabilities documentation.

• Estate planning documents (powers of attorney, wills, advance directives and trust agreements).

• Property insurance documents, including policy numbers and declarations pages.

• Tax records.

• Financial statements (loans, credit cards, banks, retirement accounts and investment accounts), as well as income records (pay stubs and government benefits).

• Copies of driver’s licenses and other IDs, health insurance cards and credit cards.

• Family photos or heirlooms.

(For a complete checklist, visit ready.gov.)

Store copies in the cloud

“It’s also a good idea to keep scans of your critical documents, as well as backups of all your computer files on a storage device at a separate location, or in the cloud,” said Pete Duncanson, senior director of training and development at ServiceMaster Restore, a restoration service company, in an email.

In some cases, a copy of a document will suffice in an emergency. This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t keep the original — but if you lose the original, you may be able to get by with your digital copy.

You can take a photo, scan a document or create a PDF of an online statement, and use a cloud service like Google Drive or Dropbox for storage. If you use an external drive, keep that somewhere safe as well.

The video you should make

If you need to file an insurance claim, your insurer will need proof of what you owned. Keeping a record of your things is tedious — but you probably have a smartphone with a camera.

“Start from the front door, turn on the video camera, take a quick two-minute walk around your house,” Tamayo says. “Save it on the cloud.”

Do this once a year. Let your insurance renewal be your cue, or set a calendar reminder — and refresh it when you’ve made a major purchase or renovation. “You want to get credit for the newest things that you have,” Tamayo says.

Where to keep your documents

Store important documents in a container that makes the most sense for your particular risks with an eye toward preparing for the unexpected. Here are some options:

• Fireproof safe: You can get a fireproof safe box for under $50, but keep in mind that they come in a variety of sizes and temperature ratings. Some are waterproof. Some are more portable than others. Putting items into a zip-close bag or waterproof container inside a fireproof safe can provide double protection.

• Safe deposit box: A safe deposit box at a bank can weather a lot of events. But don’t put anything there that you might need in a hurry — such as a passport for a last-minute trip — or anything someone would need in the event of your death, such as your estate documents. “If a family member isn’t on the box, that box has to go through full-blown probate just to get stuff out of the box,” says Patrick Simasko, an estate planning attorney at Simasko Law in Mount Clemens, Michigan.

• Plastic bin: At the very least, you can put important documents in a watertight plastic bin on a high shelf. “It’s not going to protect you from fire, but it can protect the paperwork from smoke damage and from a burst pipe or flooding incident,” says Adam Lyszczarz, program manager of the documents division of restoration company Prism Specialties in Southeast Michigan.

• Fridge or freezer: Putting your documents in a plastic zip-close bag in your refrigerator or freezer can also protect them, although it’s not a long-term solution. “They are watertight and the cool temperatures will ensure that things don’t burn, but after a while they could begin to mold,” Lyszczarz says.

This article was written by NerdWallet and was originally published by The Associated Press. 

The article Would Your Documents Survive a Disaster? What to Protect and How originally appeared on NerdWallet.

We may be in the thick of winter, but many homebuyers and sellers are starting to have warm thoughts about the housing market. That’s because, looking ahead, market indicators suggest we’ll see increased activity thanks to lower mortgage rates. Yet home prices remain high and inventory levels are tight in many markets.

How will the first quarter of 2024 shake out when it comes to rates, prices, sales activity and more? We asked top real estate experts to identify upcoming trends and offer their predictions.

What to expect in Q1 2024

The first quarter of the year is often a slower one for real estate due to colder weather and the inclination among buyers and sellers to wait things out until closer to spring.

“We typically see housing inventory remaining low until February and then ramping up from March onward,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. “Homebuying and open house visits also ramp up starting in March.”

Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, agrees. “Quarter number one is usually something of a reset for the housing market,” he says. “Prices and sales volume decline toward the end of the previous year, and January is often the weakest month in terms of pricing, inventory and sales activity. But things start to pick up in February and March. I expect the first quarter of 2024 to feel like a continuation of 2023, with relatively weak home sales and modest price increases. Still, mortgage rates have recently dropped at the quickest pace in decades, and will probably continue to decline through the first quarter — bringing more prospective buyers back into the market.”

Shri Ganeshram, founder and CEO of real estate investment site Awning, also anticipates an atypical uptick in buyer activity this quarter, which “could lead to a more dynamic market than usual for this period.”

But those lower-rate-motivated buyers will likely continue to face a dearth of supply. One major reason is that the vast majority of mortgage holders have an interest rate that’s 6% or lower, says Kenon Chen, executive vice president of strategy and growth for Clear Capital. That creates a lock-in effect that encourages them to stay put rather than sell and purchase another property. “We may see more homeowners tap into their available equity this quarter to make improvements in place rather than move,” says Chen.

Q1 mortgage rate projections

Prospective purchasers feel a bit more confident lately, with mortgage interest rates backing off 23-year highs at the end of 2023. As of December 20, 2023, Bankrate’s weekly national survey of large lenders puts the average rate for a 30-year mortgage at 6.88.

And rates are generally expected to continue falling, especially since the Federal Reserve recently indicated that rate cuts could be on the way in 2024.

“We’ve turned a corner, with the Fed done raising interest rates, inflation coming down and modest economic growth expected in 2024,” says Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst. “This has been beneficial to mortgage rates as bond yields have fallen a full percentage point since October and further declines are on the horizon in the new year.”

McBride foresees the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loan averaging 6.75% this quarter, versus 6.15% for the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage loan. Yun’s prediction is similar: 6.8% for the 30-year home loan, on average. Sharga also expects rates to fall within the 6.5 to 6.75% range in the first quarter.

But not everyone is as optimistic: “I predict a slight increase in mortgage rates, potentially reaching around 7.75% and 6.65%, respectively, for 30-year and 15-year loans based on current economic trends and monetary policies,” Ganeshram says.

Where sales activity and home prices are heading

The good news is that home sales likely bottomed out in 2023 and are due to improve slightly in 2024. “We foresee 5.5 million combined new and existing home sales in 2024, up from 4.8 million in 2023,” says Yun. “Days on the market will remain swift at around 25 from listing to contract signing.”

“We can probably expect to see up to 800,000 sales during the first quarter, with many homes continuing to sell briskly — often going from listing to sale in under 25 days,” Sharga says.

But sales volume increasing doesn’t necessarily translate to home prices declining. In fact, Yun anticipates a 2 to 4% nationwide increase in home prices across the first quarter, due to the persistent housing shortage. Sharga, meanwhile, looks for home affordability to improve — ”hopefully” — with mortgage rates trending down, wage growth running at around 5% annually, and home price appreciation at or below the rate of inflation.

Housing inventory predictions for Q1

The nationwide shortage of housing inventory continues to be an issue for homebuyers. “Mortgage applications have recently increased in response to lower rates, signaling there is still enough demand on the sidelines to continue the supply shortage in 2024,” Chen says.

Sharga echoes those sentiments: “We are unlikely to see the supply of existing homes for sale rise appreciably until mortgage rates come back down in the 5% range,” he says. “Housing starts for single-family residences have ticked up a bit, so we may see a little more new home inventory, but not enough to make up the difference in what we would normally have on the market with existing homes. So supply will remain constrained, giving the advantage to sellers over buyers.”

Others see silver linings ahead: “The worst of the housing shortage is over,” says Yun. “I expect approximately 30% higher inventory and more choices for buyers in 2024.”

Strategies for homebuyers and sellers

Housing experts are encouraged by Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s recent signal that he may cut rates multiple times over the coming year. That could lead to more affordable mortgage loans — buoying the hopes of potential buyers and improving the outlook for would-be sellers, too. After all, lower mortgage rates would make home purchases more affordable, and also motivate more existing homeowners to sell their homes, thereby freeing up more inventory.

“Still, buyers should be prepared for competitive markets over the next few months,” says Ganeshrmam. “I recommend exploring unconventional financing options, if necessary, and being ready to act quickly if a purchase opportunity arises.”

Indeed, if you locate a desirable home you can afford, it might be smart to jump on it. The competition for properties will very likely increase as 2024 goes on and mortgage rates tick down, so there will be more bidding wars for what’s likely to be a very limited number of homes on the market,” Sharga says.

Sellers, on the other hand, need to follow best pricing practices to ensure top dollar for their properties. Make sure you have a good understanding of how much your home is worth in the current market. “Price your home correctly from the beginning,” advises Yun. “Otherwise, it could be seen as stale and may require a 10% price reduction.”

Key takeaways

•Buying and selling activity during the first quarter of the year is usually slow but picks up momentum closer to spring.

•Experts are encouraged by mortgage rates declining recently, which could motivate more house-hunters to begin their search.

•Buyers will continue to face low housing supply challenges and, if rates keep dropping, more competition from rival shoppers.

©2023 Bankrate online. Visit Bankrate online at bankrate.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Cynthia Kelly, of the Tampa area, is suing the company for $5 million in Florida’s Middle District Court.

In the lawsuit, Kelly claims the company is misleading consumers with inaccurate packaging, including depicting Reese’s Peanut Butter Cup Pumpkins with carved out eyes and mouths. However, she said the actual candies contain no such carvings.

Kelly’s class-action suit also points out Reese’s White Pumpkins, Reese’s Pieces Pumpkins, Reese’s Peanut Butter Ghost, Reese’s White Ghost, Reese’s Peanut Butter Bats, Reese’s Peanut Butter footballs and Reese’s Peanut Butter Shapes Assortment Snowmen Stockings Bells.

“Hershey’s labels for the Products are materially misleading and numerous consumers have been tricked and misled by the pictures on the Products’ packaging,” the lawsuit states.

Several photos comparing products’ packaging to their actual shapes are featured in the document. They include a football shape that Kelly said resembles an egg. The lawsuit suggests Hershey correct the packaging to reflect the actual contents.

The document also includes links to several YouTube videos of people reviewing the products and complaining about a lack of details on the candies. One of the videos is titled “Reese’s Halloween Candy LIED To Me!” and another states “Reese’s Drops First 2023 Halloween Candy … BUT FAILS!”

Kelly said that she noticed the Reese’s pumpkins while shopping in October at Aldi and “believed that the product contained a cute looking carving of a pumpkin’s mouth and eyes as pictured on the product packaging.”

In the lawsuit, Kelly noted she would not have purchased the product if she knew it didn’t contain detailed carvings of the eyes and mouth as pictured on the label.

The document also notes that Hershey’s packaging didn’t always include the detailed carvings, something it added in the past two or three years. The Hershey Company didn’t immediately respond when reached for comment.

©2023 Advance Local Media LLC. Visit pennlive.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

It’s just about time to celebrate New Year’s Eve and say goodbye to 2023. Preparing for a midnight toast and more year-end festivities may require a run or two to the store — but it’s wise to expect some limited business hours.

While a handful of major chains operate normally on the final day of the year, many others close up shop early. Much of this depends on location and each company’s policy — so when in doubt, call ahead or check online for more specific schedules near you.

Here’s a rundown of New Year’s Eve hours for stores across the U.S. this year.

Walmart is open with regular operating hours on New Year’s Eve.

Most Target stores will close at 9 p.m. on New Year’s Eve.

Costco’s warehouses will be open from 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. on New Year’s Eve, although hours may vary between locations. You can check local hours here.

Many CVS Pharmacy locations will operate with normal hours on New Year’s Eve, but some non-24 locations may be closed or have reduced hours. Customers are encouraged to call ahead or double check local hours online.

Walgreens stores will be open with regular hours on New Year’s Eve, but pharmacy hours can vary by location. You can check ahead online.

Here’s a rundown of how some other grocery, convenience and retail stores are operating on New Year’s Eve:

1. Albertsons: Stores are open with regular hours, but pharmacy openings may vary.

2. ALDI: Stores are open with limited hours.

3. Home Depot: Stores are open from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.

4. IKEA: Stores are open from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.

5. Jewel-Osco: Stores and pharmacies will be open with reduced hours.

6. Kroger: Most stores will close early.

7. Lowe’s: Stores close at 6 p.m.

8. Macy’s: Stores will be open from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m.

9. Meijer: Stores are open from 6 a.m. to midnight.

10. Rite Aid: Stores are open with regular hours.

11. Sam’s Club: Stores close at 6 p.m.

12. Safeway: Stores are open with regular hours, but pharmacy hours may vary.

13. Sheetz: Stores are open.

14. Trader Joe’s: Stores close at 5 p.m.

15. 7-Eleven: Most stores are open 24/7 (including on holidays), but some locations’ hours can vary.

Catalyzing a year of AI fanfare was ChatGPT. The chatbot gave the world a glimpse of recent advances in computer science even if not everyone figured out quite how it works or what to do with it.

“I would call this an inflection moment,” pioneering AI scientist Fei-Fei Li said. “2023 is, in history, hopefully going to be remembered for the profound changes of the technology as well as the public awakening. It also shows how messy this technology is.”

It was a year for people to figure out “what this is, how to use it, what’s the impact — all the good, the bad and the ugly,” she said.

PANIC OVER AI

The first AI panic of 2023 set in soon after New Year’s Day when classrooms reopened and schools from Seattle to Paris started blocking ChatGPT. Teenagers were already asking the chatbot — released in late 2022 — to compose essays and answer take-home tests.

AI large language models behind technology such as ChatGPT work by repeatedly guessing the next word in a sentence after having “learned” the patterns of a huge trove of human-written works. They often get facts wrong. But the outputs appeared so natural that it sparked curiosity about the next AI advances and its potential use for trickery and deception.

Worries escalated as this new cohort of generative AI tools — spitting out not just words but novel images, music and synthetic voices — threatened the livelihoods of anyone who writes, draws, strums or codes for a living. It fueled strikes by Hollywood writers and actors and legal challenges from visual artists and bestselling authors.

Some of the AI field’s most esteemed scientists warned that the technology’s unchecked progress was marching toward outsmarting humans and possibly threatening their existence, while other scientists called their concerns overblown or brought attention to more immediate risks.

By spring, AI-generated deepfakes — some more convincing than others — had leaped into U.S. election campaigns, where one falsely showed Donald Trump embracing the nation’s former top infectious disease expert. The technology made it increasingly difficult to distinguish between real and fabricated war footage in Ukraine and Gaza.

By the end of the year, the AI crises had shifted to ChatGPT’s own maker, the San Francisco startup OpenAI, nearly destroyed by corporate turmoil over its charismatic CEO, and to a government meeting room in Belgium, where exhausted political leaders from across the European Union emerged after days of intense talks with a deal for the world’s first major AI legal safeguards.

The new AI law will take a few years to fully take effect, and other lawmaking bodies — including the U.S. Congress — are still a long way from enacting their own.

TOO MUCH HYPE?

There’s no question that commercial AI products unveiled in 2023 incorporated technological achievements not possible in earlier stages of AI research, which trace back to the mid-20th century.

But the latest generative AI trend is at peak hype, according to the market research firm Gartner, which has tracked what it calls the “hype cycle” of emerging technology since the 1990s. Picture a wooden rollercoaster ticking up to its highest hill, about to careen down into what Gartner describes as a “trough of disillusionment” before coasting back to reality.

“Generative AI is right in the peak of inflated expectations,” Gartner analyst Dave Micko said. “There’s massive claims by vendors and producers of generative AI around its capabilities, its ability to deliver those capabilities.”

Google drew criticism this month for editing a video demonstration of its most capable AI model, called Gemini, in a way that made it appear more impressive — and human-like.

Micko said leading AI developers are pushing certain ways of applying the latest technology, most of which correspond to their current line of products — be they search engines or workplace productivity software. That doesn’t mean that’s how the world will use it.

“As much as Google and Microsoft and Amazon and Apple would love us to adopt the way that they think about their technology and that they deliver that technology, I think adoption actually comes from the bottom up,” he said.

IS IT DIFFERENT THIS TIME?

It’s easy to forget that this isn’t the first wave of AI commercialization. Computer vision techniques developed by Li and other scientists helped sort through a huge database of photos to recognize objects and individual faces and help guide self-driving cars. Speech recognition advances made voice assistants like Siri and Alexa a fixture in many people’s lives.

“When we launched Siri in 2011, it was at that point the fastest-growing consumer app and the only major mainstream application of AI that people had ever experienced,” said Tom Gruber, co-founder of Siri Inc., which Apple bought and made an integral iPhone feature.

But Gruber believes what’s happening now is the “biggest wave ever” in AI, unleashing new possibilities as well as dangers.

“We’re surprised that we could accidentally encounter this astonishing ability with language, by training a machine to play solitaire on all of the internet,” Gruber said. “It’s kind of amazing.”

The dangers could come fast in 2024, as major national elections in the U.S., India and elsewhere could get flooded with AI-generated deepfakes.

In the longer term, AI technology’s rapidly improving language, visual perception and step-by-step planning capabilities could supercharge the vision of a digital assistant — but only if granted access to the “inner loop of our digital life stream,” Gruber said.

“They can manage your attention as in, ‘You should watch this video. You should read this book. You should respond to this person’s communication,’” Gruber said. “That is what a real executive assistant does. And we could have that, but with a really big risk of personal information and privacy.”

Despite the pervasiveness of fees, they can still give consumers sticker shock. After clicking Apple Pay to buy that $25 late-night Grub Hub order, it turns into nearly twice that once tip is added — or when those $100 tickets to see that up-and-coming band quickly turn into $200 tickets.

The impact on consumers’ wallets isn’t small.

Take credit card fees and interest. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau estimates that, from 2018 through 2020, Americans paid around $364 billion for just those two types of extra charges. And to keep their money in checking accounts, almost 30% of Americans are forced to satisfy monthly fees, paying an additional $24 every month on average — or $288 annually, according to a survey by consumer financial services company Bankrate.

Consider that, last year, the average annual expenses for U.S. consumers amounted to almost $73,000, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s a 9% jump from 2021. Among the different spending categories, housing claimed the biggest share at 33%, followed by transportation at 17% and food at 13%.

In Colorado, for one, the cost of living exceeds the national average by 6%, with housing, food, goods and services all priced higher, according to nationwide apartment listing service RentCafe. Only monthly utilities and transportation fall lower.

“For the last 15 years, (businesses) have done fees of some kind,” said Lani Langton, a business adviser in Lakewood. And “in the last year, a lot more fees have been tacked on.”

She predicted that companies will begin to incorporate the extra fees into the total cost presented to their consumers, instead of breaking the fees down into line items because “people are gawking at it.”

“And, yet, that’s a cost of business that they have to pay,” Langton said.

The fees run the gamut. Convenience fees, also known as as pay-to-pay fees, are levied by companies when payments are processed online or on the phone, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau reports. Meanwhile, in Colorado as an example, the state’s Department of Revenue refers to a service fee, or a vendor fee, as “a percentage of the sales tax collected that a retailer is allowed to retain in order to cover the expenses incurred by collecting and remitting state sales tax.”

For bank services, a customer may pay a monthly maintenance fee on their checking account, a minimum balance fee, an overdraft fee, an ATM withdrawal fee and more.

For example, a Capital One customer with its “essential checking” services puts down a $50 minimum deposit to open an account, and pays a $9 monthly service charge if they don’t keep a minimum daily balance of $300. They also shell out $2 to use non-Capital One ATMs in the U.S., on top of additional fees that the ATM owner may require. The overdraft fee is $35 — same as the non-sufficient funds fee.

Extra fees breakdown

Over one month, this Denver Post reporter tracked the additional fees paid on both necessary living expenses like monthly rent and recreational expenditures, such as concert tickets. The total: $167.

• Falling in line with the U.S. average, the bulk of that amount was related to rent. To pay October and November rent with a credit card and earn points, I forked over an additional $108 in convenience fees.

• The runner-up for most expensive fees also aligned with the No. 2 spending category: transportation. Barring the required transportation taxes, I spent $30 in extra fees to purchase airline flights, which my carrier, United Airlines, broke down as the U.S. passenger facility charge and the U.S. passenger civil aviation security service fee.

The former is used by airports for upkeep and maintenance, while the latter goes to the Transportation Security Administration to secure air travel. In fiscal year 2023, the TSA collected the highest amount of annual fees in 21 years — almost $4.3 billion.

• Between Denver’s Oriental Theater and ticket outlet AXS, I paid $15 in additional charges related to concerts: $8 to buy a last-minute ticket to yacht rock band Yachtley Crew at the Berkeley neighborhood venue and $7 to sell two tickets on AXS for a Halloween DJ set at The Mission Ballroom.

Fees, along with shockingly expensive ticket prices, are at the center of debate among music fans, who can sometimes pay extra charges that amount to one-third of the overall price of a ticket. Colorado lawmakers aimed to address the fees issue through Senate Bill 23-60, by mandating sellers disclose the tickets’ total price, but Gov. Jared Polis vetoed it this past summer.

But the fight isn’t a new one. In 1994, American rock band Pearl Jam sued ticket sales and distribution company Ticketmaster for monopolizing the market, the Foundation for Economic Education reports. The tension between artists and Ticketmaster continues to this day.

• Although I cook the majority of my meals at home, I still forked over $8 in service fees for food delivery.

Online food ordering and food delivery platform DoorDash maintains a notorious reputation for stacking on additional charges. When I ordered $28 worth of sushi for an anniversary meal, that didn’t include the $4 service fee described on the app as a 15% fee (a minimum of $3) that “helps us operate DoorDash” — or the $0.28 retail delivery fee, separate $0.49 delivery fee, $3 in taxes and $3 driver tip.

On a different day, even when I went directly to the source — the website for a Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant — it still saddled me with a $3 service fee.

• To use mobile payment service Venmo, I paid $5 in charges, including transfer fees and cash advance fees.

Similar to platforms PayPal and Cash App, Venmo is commonly used to request and send money between friends as an alternative to using cash. Almost 40% of American adults use the service, with the majority of users at 57% falling into my generation: ages 18-29, Pew Research Center reports.

• Finally, at the bottom of the list, Xcel Energy lumped in an extra $2 service fee for me to pay my monthly utilities bill.

‘We seem to be paying the price’

Others have noticed that their wallets are taking hits on fees, too.

Shelby Lien, a Colorado resident, planned to pay $300 for three tickets to SIX, a musical comedy, at the Denver Center for the Performing Arts. However, at the online checkout, an extra $45 ticket fee — $15 each — was tacked onto her total.

“I don’t have a real job, so $15 is pretty big for me personally,” Lien, 32, said. “I still paid the fee because I really want to go to the show.”

She ultimately hopes the money went to the center and not a third-party service provider.

In Colorado, some retailers are allowed to keep service fees to help them collect and remit the state sales tax. At restaurants specifically, service charges “can be allocated within the business however ownership sees fit,” including to pay owners, manager and supervisors, the Colorado Restaurant Association reports.

Over the past year, Michael MacLauchlan has paid around $3 more each month to set up automatic payments through his bank for his homeowners association fees in Denver’s Cherry Creek East.

“I feel as though I’m being squeezed as a retiree on a fixed income to pay not only for recently high inflation, but miscellaneous charges,” he said. Still, “it’s more of a nuisance, rather than a hardship.”

Since the financial squeeze of the COVID-19 pandemic that impacted most Americans, “we seem to be paying the price over these past couple of years,” MacLauchlan said.

And with the continued development of automation, robotics and even artificial intelligence, he often wonders if the country will ever return to pre-pandemic prices and affordability. In particular, MacLauchlan worries about “food and housing for many of the next generation who are finding it extremely difficult for home ownership.”

Jacki Smith, a 40-year-old Denver resident, notes the growing frequency of credit card processing fees in the U.S. Although the practice falls in line with other countries, Smith wonders about the “financial burden” it may pose on families reliant on credit for basic needs.

“I’m lucky to be child free and had no health setbacks, but I always consider those who’ve not had that fortune and who might depend on occasion to use credit cards to get by,” she said.

But Smith considers other fees imposed on concert tickets and airline flights as “a part of doing business.”

She points to websites and customer service support as expenses that cost businesses — and, thereby, consumers — money.

“It shouldn’t be a surprise,” Smith said. “People can take it or leave it.”